Origen have finally definitively fallen away from the leading pack, and find themselves struggling to keep above the middle of the table. Going 1-1 in their last 3 weeks tells the story of their season; they beat the bad teams, but lose to the good teams, and thus deserve their middle of the pack standing. G2 have also gone 1 – 1 over the last 2 weeks, and whilst the losses came against Vitality and Fnatic, both good teams in their own right, it does seem to indicate their beginning of the season tear was due to a good degree of natural synergy rather than a reflection on their ability as a team.
This game will likely go as expected, with G2 taking a relatively straightforward victory. Origen have shown no ability to beat the top teams in EU this year, and haven’t really been improving much in recent weeks. The improved performances of Kikis recently combined with Soaz continuing to fall off a cliff in terms of individual play don’t bode well for Origen, as the real differing factor in G2 between losses and wins tends to be Kikis. He needs to be able to frontline for the carry trio of Trick, Perkz and Emperor in order for G2’s team fight focused style to bear fruit. Whilst Origen have the option of sending Amazing top to shut down Kikis, Amazing is also having a poor season by his standards and so we don’t see Origen having an answer to G2’s play style. As we have said previously, take G2 to win this one.
This game takes on a whole new level of significance with the emerging story line that Forgiven, the star ADC for H2K may have to cut his LCS season short to join the Greek army. H2K have been, on balance, probably the best team in Europe this season, with a huge amount of individual talent combined with some of the strongest macro in the west right now. Considering they had a real shot at not only attending worlds this year, but being an early shout for a deep run (if you weighed up the worlds teams right now), this comes as a real blow not only to the player but the team as a whole. You could tell in their game on Thursday that Forgiven was not his usual self, and Giants may be able to take advantage of this.
Giants have more of a chance to win this game than they could possibly hope for, considering the stressful circumstances H2K find themselves in. There is no doubt that behind the scenes H2K as an organisation will be working with Forgiven to find a solution to his conscription issues, and Forgiven as a player may have his preparation for this game affected, which will of course be a detriment to his team as well. Whilst we still favour H2K overall, as they are stronger individually in every position, the brave better may want to take Giants as a potential upset here.
H2K to win at 1/7 with bet365 and William Hill (1.15)
(Consider Giants at 9/2 with Betfair (5.5))
By: Arron “King Dempz” Dempsey – @arrondempers